Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.092419 0.102625 0.113096 0.124617 0.136910 0.149610 0.163696
2025-01-19 0.074511 0.089715 0.106138 0.125075 0.146185 0.168879 0.195003
2025-01-26 0.066996 0.086311 0.108070 0.134097 0.164085 0.197271 0.236490
2025-02-02 0.057596 0.079218 0.104563 0.135913 0.173106 0.215309 0.266296
2025-02-09 0.050808 0.074187 0.102583 0.138744 0.182716 0.233650 0.296294
2025-02-16 0.043905 0.068096 0.098535 0.138397 0.188005 0.246566 0.319761
2025-02-23 0.041351 0.067248 0.100732 0.145515 0.202204 0.270048 0.355829
2025-03-02 0.038653 0.065844 0.101935 0.151174 0.214495 0.291232 0.389272
2025-03-09 0.033407 0.060314 0.097204 0.148747 0.216282 0.299330 0.406712
2025-03-16 0.028435 0.054629 0.091779 0.144969 0.215975 0.304558 0.420442
2025-03-23 0.026778 0.053734 0.092867 0.149824 0.226806 0.323750 0.451533
2025-03-30 0.024928 0.052336 0.093089 0.153391 0.235902 0.340773 0.480026
2025-04-06 0.022657 0.050184 0.092273 0.155740 0.243788 0.356856 0.508219
2025-04-13 0.020140 0.047379 0.090329 0.156428 0.249486 0.370286 0.533376
2025-04-20 0.020191 0.049013 0.095185 0.166976 0.268791 0.401668 0.581811
2025-04-27 0.018330 0.047035 0.094303 0.169108 0.276524 0.417976 0.611082
2025-05-04 0.016899 0.045671 0.094265 0.172400 0.285843 0.436421 0.643239
2025-05-11 0.014898 0.042964 0.091862 0.172002 0.289891 0.447834 0.666313
2025-05-18 0.014658 0.043715 0.095145 0.180244 0.306242 0.475822 0.711211
2025-05-25 0.014137 0.043821 0.097314 0.186784 0.320214 0.500708 0.752207
2025-06-01 0.012159 0.040584 0.093575 0.183981 0.320600 0.507111 0.768792
2025-06-08 0.010184 0.037022 0.088994 0.179613 0.318516 0.510011 0.780652
2025-06-15 0.009770 0.037000 0.090683 0.185225 0.331084 0.533059 0.819447